Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature i...
متن کاملRandom Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to ...
متن کاملWolbachia versus dengue Evolutionary forecasts
A novel form of biological control is being applied to the dengue virus. The agent is the maternally transmitted bacterium Wolbachia, naturally absent from the main dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Three Wolbachia-based control strategies have been proposed. One is suppression of mosquito populations by large-scale releases of males incompatible with native females; this intervention ...
متن کاملFreight transport development forecasts in enterprises management
In this study, an investigation of long-term forecasts relating to the development of the transport sector in Poland is performed, including the ones by 2030 and 2050. Selected transport development forecasts from the perspective of the membership of Poland in the European Union are presented and most of all, from the perspective of national studies. The basement for the review was the prognosi...
متن کاملCombining forecasts
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal procedures to combine forecasts: An equal-weights rule offers a reasonable starting point, and a trimmed mean is desirable if you combine forecasts resulting from five or more methods. Use different ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Energy & Environment
سال: 2007
ISSN: 0958-305X,2048-4070
DOI: 10.1260/095830507782616887